Spatiotemporal analysis of some extreme rainfall indices over Iraq (1981–2017)

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Alaa M. Al-Lami
Yaseen K. Al-Timimi
Hasanain K. A. Al-Shamarti

Keywords : extreme precipitation, RClimDex, ETCCDI, climate change, OLS, Iraq

Extreme rainfall is one of the environmental hazards with disastrous effects on the human environment. Water resources management is very vulnerable to any changes in rainfall intensities. A spatiotemporal analysis is essential for study the impact of climate change and variability on extreme rainfall. In this study, daily rainfall data for 36 meteorological stations in Iraq during 1981–2017 were used to investigate the spatiotemporal pattern of 10 extreme rainfall indices using RClimDex package. These indices were classified into two categories: rainfall total (PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p, R99p, RX1day, and RX5day) and rainfall days (CDD, CWD, R10, and R20). Depending on the mean annual precipitation data, the study area was divided into three climatic zones to examine the time series features of those 10 indices. Results showed a tendency to increase in precipitation toward the northwestern part of Iraq, and more than 70% of stations achieved a positive trend for most indices. The most frequent negative trend appeared in eight stations distributed in the western and southern parts of Iraq, namely (Heet, Haditha, Anah, Rutba, Qaim, Nukheb, Najaf, and Fao). A significant positive trend appeared obviously in PRCPTOT and R95p with a rate of 0.1–4.6 and 0.5–2.7 mm per year, respectively.  The most significant rate of change was noticed in regions one and two (northern and middle parts of Iraq), particularly for PRCPTOT and R95p 3.26 and 2.45 mm per day, respectively. Only the northern and eastern regions of Iraq experienced a high probability of significant extreme rainfall. 

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Al-Lami, A. M., Al-Timimi, Y. K., & Al-Shamarti, H. K. A. (2021). Spatiotemporal analysis of some extreme rainfall indices over Iraq (1981–2017). Scientific Review Engineering and Environmental Sciences (SREES), 30(2), 221–235.

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